Keller's Median Price Keeps Moving. The Number Worth Watching Is the Discount Off List.

From June to September 2026, Keller's median single-family sale price went from $702,500 to $627,000, then to $702,450, then to $700,000. Over the same four months, the median price per square foot stayed between about $228 and $244. Each month, sellers also accepted a slightly smaller share of their asking price.

For a buyer, the shrinking share of list price is the useful number. A month of $75,000 swings in the median says more about which houses closed than about what a Keller house is worth.

Four Months of Keller Sales, Side by Side

These are the Keller single-family rows from the monthly MLS summary reports that the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center prepares for the North Texas Real Estate Information System. They're published on the MetroTex Association of Realtors market reports page. Each 2026 figure sits next to the same month in 2025.

Look at July. Year over year, the median fell $158,000, from $785,000 in July 2025 to $627,000 in July 2026. Median price per square foot went up, from $233.78 to $238.07. With the price paid per square foot rising while the median fell, the change came from which homes sold. July 2026 had more of Keller's smaller and less expensive homes among its closings.

September shows the same effect in reverse. The median rose from $672,000 in September 2025 to $700,000 in September 2026. Over the same year, the average sale price fell from $825,511 to $727,679, and median price per square foot slipped from $231.23 to $230.87. When the median goes up, the average falls by nearly $100,000, and price per square foot doesn't move, the mix of homes changed. September 2026 had 64 closings against 43 the year before. It had fewer sales at the very top, which pull up the average, and more in the middle, where the median sits.

Why a City of Keller's Size Produces This Noise

A median is the middle sale. With 51 to 77 closings a month, a handful of larger homes on acreage or a cluster of smaller ones can move that middle sale by tens of thousands of dollars. Keller has both kinds of housing within its city limits, so the mix changes from month to month.

There's a second limit on the data. The NTREIS summary counts only MLS listings and leaves out sales through outside sources such as builders and non-NTREIS members. Builder-direct sales of new construction don't appear in these medians.

Price per square foot accounts for house size, so it holds steadier. Across the four months it stayed in a range of about $16 per square foot. If you're comparing Keller with a neighboring city, compare price per square foot, and compare several months rather than one.

The Discount Moves on a Calendar

Sold-to-list measures what sellers accepted as a share of their asking price. In 2026 it fell every month this summer:

1. June 2026: 98.1%
2. July 2026: 96.3%
3. August 2026: 95.9%
4. September 2026: 94.3%

On its own, that looks like a softening market. The 2025 rows show a similar pattern, falling from 97.4% in June and 98.0% in July to 94.2% in August and 95.7% in September. In both years, Keller sellers gave up the most off list in late summer and early fall. The figures show a seasonal window.

To put the percentages in dollars, apply them to a home listed at $700,000. At June 2026's 98.1%, the gap between list and sale comes to about $13,300. At September 2026's 94.3%, it comes to about $39,900. Those dollar figures are illustrations, not a forecast for any one house. The ratio is an aggregate across all of a month's sales, and individual homes can come in well above or below it. Still, the difference between June and September was close to three times as many dollars.

Days on market tell a similar story. In September 2026, Keller homes sold in an average of 50 days, against 46 a year earlier and 29 in June 2026. Sellers whose homes sit longer tend to accept less, and in Keller the homes that closed in September had sat the longest.

How Keller's Discount Compares Next Door

The September 2026 report puts Keller's 94.3% next to the cities a Keller buyer usually considers:

• Watauga: 96.8% of list, median $288,500, 26 days on market
• North Richland Hills: 96.1% of list, median $360,000, 40 days on market
• Southlake: 95.2% of list, median $1,725,000, 49 days on market
• Keller: 94.3% of list, median $700,000, 50 days on market
• Colleyville: 93.5% of list, median $800,000, 75 days on market

Generally, the higher a city's price range, the more room there was to negotiate. Keller's September discount was closer to Colleyville's than to the more modestly priced cities next door. On price per square foot, Keller's $230.87 was well below Southlake's $400.63 and Colleyville's $275.39.

Supply Is Not the Reason

If the September discount came from a wave of new listings, inventory would show it. It didn't. Keller had 141 active single-family listings in September 2026, against 132 a year earlier, and months of inventory moved from 2.7 to 2.8. Inventory was actually higher in June and July 2026, at 175 and 176 active listings and 3.6 and 3.7 months of supply. Those were the same months sellers were getting 96% to 98% of list. So the fall discount came as active listings declined, which points to the season rather than to a glut of homes.

The best-known new-supply headline won't change that soon. On Oct. 20, Keller City Council approved Providence, a gated community of 21 custom homes on lots averaging about 32,000 square feet, with homes estimated at around $2 million. Community Impact reported that the developer expects to break ground in about a year and begin sales in about two. Those homes won't compete with resale listings this season or next.

Rentals are also tight. Keller had 19 active single-family leases in September 2026, down from 44 a year earlier, with 1.3 months of inventory and leases closing at 99.3% of the asking rent. Renting while you wait for a better month has its own cost in Keller right now.

What Changed on the Ownership Side This October

Keller's new fiscal year began Oct. 1. In September, the council adopted a city property tax rate of $0.300417 per $100 of valuation, up from $0.287. Community Impact noted that the new rate is below the "no new revenue" rate. City documents estimate the city portion of the bill for an average home, assessed at $459,668, at about $1,381, an increase of $7.34. That assessed figure is far below the $700,000 September sale median, a reminder that a seller's current bill is a poor guide to a buyer's. Keller ISD kept its rate at $1.0852 per $100 for a third straight year, according to Community Impact. Tarrant County trimmed its rate to $0.186.

Utility costs rose too. City water costs are up 4.75%, and water and wastewater fees are up 3.5%. The city puts the average annual bill for 14,000 gallons of water at $93.44 and the average monthly sewer bill for 6,000 gallons at $51.11. The capital plan includes $2.6 million to replace the 40-year-old Alta Vista waterline. None of these changes is large next to a $40,000 swing in negotiation. They belong in a buyer's monthly budget, but they shouldn't drive the decision of when to buy.

Quick Answers

When will October 2026 figures for Keller be out? MetroTex releases North Texas geographic reports on or near the 20th day after the month ends, so October figures should appear around Nov. 20. Until then, September 2026 is the latest month available.

Did Keller home values rise in 2026? Year over year, median price per square foot was nearly flat in September 2026 at $230.87, against $231.23 in September 2025. The higher median mostly reflects a different mix of homes.

Is the September discount guaranteed to repeat? No. Two years of the same late-summer pattern makes a useful reference point, but it doesn't predict any single home's sale.

Does the new Providence development affect resale prices now? Based on the developer's estimate of sales about two years out, it adds no inventory this season.

Property tax rates and utility fees here are reported from city, county, and district actions. This post is general information, not tax or financial advice, so confirm your own figures with the appropriate professional.

If you're weighing a Keller purchase or sale and want to know whether a particular listing reflects the fall discount or a mispriced asking price, Ivy House Realty can compare it with price per square foot and recent sold-to-list results for similar homes. Contact Us.